Fiscal Policy & Economic Backdrop
Autumn 2016

The government will publish its Autumn Statement on November 23rd. The Chancellor has already confirmed that balancing the UK’s books by 2020 will be dropped and a possible ‘fiscal reset’ for the UK has been hinted at. Many are expecting considerable infrastructure investment including a £3 billion fund to boost housing construction, with current new rates of building considerably below the 200,000 homes per year target. Whether concessions to the current SDLT regime are made in light of the stagnant London market remains to be seen. Independent forecasts published by the Treasury indicate that house prices across the UK will rise by 3.5% in 2016, slowing to just 0.1% growth across 2017.

September saw a suite of positive announcements on the economy. The GfK consumer confidence index rose back to pre-Brexit levels, while Markit reported that the output from the construction sector expanded for the first time since May. However, the announcement by the Prime Minister at the beginning of October that UK will trigger Article 50 by the end of March sent the financial markets tumbling. The value of Sterling against the US Dollar is now 19% lower than pre-Brexit. In contrast, the stock markets have reached record highs as the FTSE 100 closed at 7,097.50. All indications are that inflation will rise over the coming months, with many expecting an overshoot of the government’s 2% target during 2017.